Author: Scrutinous

2021 Tournament Final

Congratulations to the Baylor University Bears (28-2) for their first NCAA men’s basketball championship, earned in their 13th tournament appearance.  The Gonzaga University Bulldogs (31-1) fell just short in a bid to complete an undefeated season while trying to win their first national title.  They lost their 2nd tournament final game (2017 loss to North Carolina).  The 1976 Indiana Hoosiers remain the last team to complete an undefeated season with a tourney championship.

Baylor’s championship is the 4th for the Big 12 Conference — the  the first for a member school other than Kansas.

For the second-straight tournament a first-time champion has won the tournament.  The last occurrence of consecutive first-time victors was 2002 (Maryland) and 2003 (Syracuse).

Scrutinous Score achieved the highest bracket score (104) compared to the other major team rating metrics — beating KenPom, Sagarin, NCAA NET, SRS, Net Rating, and chalk.  The bracket scores for each of the team rating metrics is presented on the Bracket Master Picks Page for every tournament season since 1998.  The (i) button to the left of the ‘Scoring System’ option will display these bracket scores.

Number 1 Seeds have won the last four tournaments.  Number 1s last won four consecutive from 2007 to 2010.  A five-straight-year streak by Number 1s occurred from 1992 to 1996.  Number 1 Seeds have won 25 of the 42 (60%) tourneys that assigned official seed numbers (all tournaments after 1978).

2021 Tournament Second Week

The 2021 tournament has continued to be all about upstarts.  No team that has won a national championship in the 21st century remains standing.  UCLA is the only one of the Final Four teams to have ever won the championship.  Baylor advanced to the Final Four for the first time in 71 years (1950).  Houston last made the semi-finals in 1984.

The 2021 tournament set a record for the highest aggregate seed total ever to make the Sweet Sixteen.  (The sum of the seed numbers of all sixteen teams.)  The 2021 aggregate seed total is 91, topping the 89 aggregate set in 1986.

Seven of the eight teams in the Elite Eight reside west of the Mississippi River.  For the first time ever, all of the Final Four teams hail from west of the Mississippi.  The last Final Four with three teams from the west was 1995.

UCLA became the second team to reach the Final Four after entering the tournament from the First Four, joining Virginia Commonwealth of 2011.  With UCLA’s regional final victory over Michigan, number 11 seeds are now 4-4 against #1 seeds.

The semi-final matchup between Baylor and Houston will be the fifth Final Four game between teams from the same state, joining: Kentucky-Louisville 2012, Ohio State-Cincinnati 1961 & 1962, and Penn State-La Salle 1954.

This is only the fourth tournament that an Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) team has not reached the Elite Eight since 1980.  The only other years without an ACC team were 2003, 2006, and 2014.   ACC teams finish the tournament with a 4-7 record.  This is their fewest wins since 1979.

2021 Tournament First Week

Oral Roberts became only the 2nd #15 seed to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.  Their duo of Kevin Obanor and Max Abmas have scored 113 of Oral Roberts’s 156 total tournament points (72.4%).  Florida Gulf Coast in 2013 was the previous #15 to advance to the second week.

Two teams collected their first-ever victories in the tournament: Abilene Christian and North Texas.

Lots of upsets should have been expected this year because many teams made their out-of-conference schedule load much lighter due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  However, the performance disparity of certain top conferences remains shocking.

The Big Ten conference led the field by receiving nine tournament berths, but their first week was disastrous, going 7-8 with only one survivor (#1 seed Michigan).  Big Ten top seeds that have been eliminated include a #1, two #2s, and a #4.  The Big Ten did not perform uniformly well in the 2019 tournament, going 13-8 – led by a Michigan State Final Four run, and Purdue reaching the Elite Eight.

Meanwhile, the Pac-12 is 10-1 with four teams remaining (Southern California, Oregon, UCLA, Oregon State).  The conference was very poorly seeded in 2019 and went 4-3 with only Oregon reaching the round of sixteen.

This season’s highly touted Big 12 is 7-6 with only one survivor (Baylor).

In recent years the ACC has been a powerhouse, but with this tournament they are just 4-5 with two teams standing (Florida State, Syracuse).

2021 Tournament Bracket Announced

The 82nd NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament field has been announced!

The Big Ten conference leads the field with 9 berths, including 5 teams seeded #1 through #4.  The Big 12 also has 5 teams seeded #1-4 among their 7 total berths.

Two teams make their tournament debuts this season: the Grand Canyon University Antelopes and the University of Hartford Hawks.  Grand Canyon (14-6) out of Phoenix, AZ won the Western Athletic Conference Tournament and regular season title.  Hartford (15-8) from West Hartford, CT won the America East Conference Tournament.

This season marks UCLA’s 50th NCAA Tournament berth (3rd most) and Villanova’s 40th.  Villanova passes Indiana for the 8th most tournament appearances.  Kansas extends its streak of consecutive tournament appearances to 31 years.  Duke’s consecutive streak ends at 24 seasons.

The COVID-19 pandemic still hovers over these proceedings.  Three teams (Duke, Kansas, and Virginia) withdrew from their conference tournament due to positive cases within their programs.  The possibility exists that these teams or others may be declared ineligible due to virus issues.  The NCAA has documented rules for declaring teams ineligible due to positive tests within seven days of the tournament start.  Ineligible teams will be replaced in the field prior to the tournament start, but once underway, a disqualified team will cause their opponent to automatically advance.

I believe the situations of Duke, Kansas, and Virginia demonstrate that conference tournaments should not have been held so close to the start of the national tournament.  There are no guarantees about how the virus might spread, but sending eight-plus team entourages to a single site within days of the national tournament shows that “hope” was the containment strategy for the NCAA and its conferences.

The effected teams and tournament organizers can now only hope that their programs remain eligible and that the virus was not spread to their opponents and the other teams sharing the arena and its locker rooms.  The fairness and integrity of the national tournament is at stake.  The need to cancel a game and advance a team puts the fairness of the tournament at question.  Was the ACC Conference Tournament fair?  Georgia Tech and Florida State both advanced while playing fewer grueling games because their earlier opponents bowed out.  We can only hope that the NCAAs are not tainted by similar forfeits.

Bracket Master Tournament Simulation

The 2020 Basketball Tournament was cancelled, but now you can simulate the championship using Bracket Master!  You can simulate a full championship tournament using any season from 1985 to the present.  The Simulation uses an exclusive methodology for rating teams and determining their odds to win a particular game.  Try to get your favorite team to win the championship!

The BracketMaster simulation is based on our exclusive “Scrutinous Score” methodology.  A Scrutinous Score is calculated for each team using advanced metrics from the season’s game results.  Using the Scrutinous Scores of a game’s two teams, we utilize a unique calculation to determine the odds for the matchup.  We simulate each game in the tournament, team-by-team, round-by-round.  Scores of games are produced by the distinct tendencies of the opposing teams.

Better, more highly rated teams will win more simulations than lesser teams, but upsets can, and will, occur.  Our extensive study of the tournament has allowed us to develop a mathematic calculation for the circumstances and frequency of these upsets.

For seasons prior to 2002, Scrutinous Scores are determined using a shorthand calculation that heavily weighs the team’s tournament seed. This demarcation is due to the lack of availability of advanced college basketball metrics prior to 2002.

The Bracket Master simulation is available starting with version 1.1.0.0726 of the app.  The Scrutinous Score game odds calculations can be viewed on both the Simulation page and the  Picks page of the app — Select the “Scrutinous Odds” option from the “Display Mode” drop down menu.

2020 Tournament Cancelled

The 2020 NCAA Men’s and Women’s Basketball Tournaments have been cancelled due to concerns about the spreading COVID-19 health threat.  The NCAA will not release an official 2020 tournament bracket, but Bracket Master has published a projected field that includes: the automatic bids that were decided, the top seeded teams in conferences that did complete their tournament, and a projection of at-large berths.

This result is very disappointing for college basketball fans, but must be incredibly frustrating for several teams that were experiencing historically successful seasons.  In particular we will call out the University of Dayton Flyers and the San Diego State Aztecs along with their consensus All-American players Obi Toppin (Dayton) and Malachi Flynn (SD State).  It’s a shame we won’t get to see these teams compete for a national title.

2019 Tournament Final

Congratulations to the University of Virginia Cavaliers for winning their first men’s basketball national championship.  This is the 15th championship for an Atlantic Coast Conference school which ties the total of the Pac-12.

Virginia (35-3) needed to survive a host of pressure-packed tests.  The Cavaliers won its six tournament games by an average of 7.5 points.  This is the third-smallest margin of victory for the champion since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.  The slim margin trails only 1985 Villanova and 1997 Arizona.  Three of Virginia’s six games came down to the final possession of regulation, and they trailed in the second half of five games.

ESPN has published a ranking of every NCAA tournament champion, from 1939 to 2019.  I don’t believe the ranking is valuable, but the article does provide a one paragraph overview of each of the 81 champions.  The 2019 Cavaliers are slotted in at number 34.

2019 Tournament First Round Notes

Six teams won a tournament game for the first time in 2019: Belmont, California-Irvine, Central Florida, Liberty, Farleigh Dickinson, and Wofford.

Number 9 seeds went 4-0 against #8s in first round games, with an average margin of victory by 16 points.  A sweep by #9s has happened in four other tournaments: 2001, 1999, 1994, 1989.

Number 12 seeds went 3-1 against #5s in first round games, including wins by Murray State, Liberty, and Oregon.  New Mexico State just missed making it a clean sweep in losing by one point to Auburn.  Historically, Number 12 seeds have won only 32% (50-106) of these matchups.

Number 10 seeds went 3-1 against #7s in first round games, including wins by Florida, Iowa, and Minnesota.  Historically, Number 10 seeds have won only 39% (62-98) of these matchups.

The Cal-Irvine Anteaters were the lowest seed (13) to advance to the second round.

Gonzaga had the largest margin of victory in the first round with their 38 point win over Farleigh Dickinson.

2019 Championship Preview

The 81st NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracket is now official.

Three number 1 seeds were awarded to ACC teams (Virginia, Duke, North Carolina) which ties a record for one conference.  In 2009, the Big East earned three number 1s: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville.  Four Big East teams reached the Elite Eight that year.

This season marks North Carolina’s 50th NCAA Tournament berth.  They trail only Kentucky (59) for the most appearances.

Two teams make their tournament debuts this season: the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs and the Abilene Christian Wildcats.  Gardner-Webb (23-11) of Boiling Springs, NC won the Big South Conference Tournament.  Abilene Christian (27-6) of Abilene, TX won the Southland Conference Tournament.

The first round game I am most looking forward to is Murray State versus Marquette.  The matchup features the nation’s #3 scorer, Markus Howard (Marquette), and the #9 scorer, Ja Morant (Murray State).

Super Scorers

The 2019 season has seen two players reach an elite NCAA milestone by scoring 3,000 points in a career.  Chris Clemons of Campbell University and Mike Daum of South Dakota State join just eight others to have accomplished the lofty feat.  BracketMaster projects South Dakota State (23-7/13-2) to receive the automatic bid for the Summit League into the NCAA Tournament, seeded as #13.  Campbell (17-11/10-4) is currently projected to miss the field as they sit in 2nd place in the Big South Conference, one game behind Radford, who we have earning the berth with a #13 seed.

It looks unlikely that either the Big South (Conference SRS at 21st of 32) or the Summit League (SRS 25th of 32) will receive a tournament bid outside of their automatic berths, so for the Camels and Jackrabbits it’s going to come down to their respective conference championship tournaments.

South Dakota State has made the NCAA Tournament the last three years, but has never won a tourney game.  Campbell has only made the NCAAs once, in 1992.  We’d love to see these two electrifying scorers, Daum and Clemons, in the field of 68 on college basketball’s biggest stage.

Update:

Both of these Super Scorers missed the tournament for their senior season, despite winning their conference’s regular season title.  South Dakota State lost in the Summit Conference Tournament quarterfinals to Western Illinois.  Campbell lost the Big South Conference Tournament final to Gardner-Webb.  The Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs will make their first-ever appearance in the NCAA Tournament.  Campbell and South Dakota State will have their seasons continue in the NIT.